This Sunday will mark 500 days of conflict since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Since then, at least 9,000 people have been killed, including 500 children, the United Nations believes.
The unwelcome anniversary follows significant developments in the conflict in recent weeks.
Last month, tensions inside Russia escalated as the Wagner mercenary group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged a brief rebellion by leading troops towards Moscow. The uprising was abandoned some 24 hours later, but the prospect of challenge in itself is likely to have weakened the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant also threatened to spiral over the past week, with Russia and Ukraine suggesting the other side planning an attack on the plant and sparking concerns about a potential fallout from the largest nuclear power station in Europe.
That followed the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine last month, unleashing a torrent of flooding.
Evaluating the Victors and the Vanquished
Kyiv described the barrier bursting as an “environmental bomb of mass destruction” and laid the blame squarely at Russia’s door. Moscow, in turn, blamed Ukraine.
And with Western powers continuing to pump weapons and money into Ukraine and Putin seemingly unrelenting in his pursuit of victory, Yahoo News looks at the significant recent developments in the conflict.
To understand who is “winning” the territorial war in Ukraine, we need to understand the objectives of each side. For Kyiv, the aim was to regain territory taken by Russia (including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014). In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the beginning of the war that he aimed to “demilitarise and denazify” Ukraine.
More practically, the Russian goalposts have moved as the conflict has continued, with its geographic aims expanding from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to include Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, among others.
Russia’s original strategic objectives, including toppling the government in Kyiv, “are not achievable militarily”, Milley told journalists after a virtual meeting of dozens of countries that are members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein group.
There are also hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, which would make Kyiv’s objective of recapturing all territory lost to Moscow’s forces unlikely “in the near term”, Milley said.
“That means fighting is going to continue; it’s going to be bloody, it’s going to be hard. And at some point, both sides will either negotiate a settlement or come to a military conclusion,” he said.
Milly’s assessment adds to several forecasts that the war in Ukraine appears set to drag on, with neither side positioned to win a clear-cut victory and no negotiations currently taking place.
According to comments published by Russia’s RIA news agency on Thursday, Medvedev described an ongoing conflict involving years of fighting with Ukraine, interspersed with multiple years of truces before fighting renewed.
“This conflict will last a very long time, most likely decades,” the RIA news agency cited Medvedev as saying during a visit to Vietnam.
“As long as there is such a power in place [in Kyiv], there will be, say, three years of truce, two years of conflict, and everything will be repeated,” said Medvedev, now the deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful Security Council.
Assessing the Military Gains and Losses
Known for regularly making hardline comments on Ukraine and those considered Moscow’s enemies, Medvedev said earlier this year that a Russian defeat could trigger a nuclear war.
Tensions between Moscow and Washington continue to grow as the US spearheads the push for international support and military aid for Ukraine, including coordinating arms supplies from dozens of countries. In an apparent policy U-turn, the US last week announced it would support giving Ukraine advanced US-made F-16 warplanes.
Ukraine’s supporters have provided nearly $65bn in security assistance to the country, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the press conference on Thursday.
On Thursday, Kyiv’s supporters “discussed plans for training Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter aircraft, including the F-16,” Austin said, speaking alongside Milley, noting that “planning and realizing this training will be a significant undertaking”.
Austin said the Dutch and Danish defence ministers are working with the US on jet fighter training for Ukraine and that Norway, Belgium, Portugal and Poland have formerly offered to contribute to the initiative.
In addition, he said the allies would set up a fund so other nations could contribute to the overall effort.
A year into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, Russia has suffered a major strategic defeat, Ukraine has achieved a major strategic victory, and the West has demonstrated a combination of resolve, unity, and cohesion that few had expected. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this is not the beginning of the end but the end of the face.
The war continues with no end in sight. Neither side is ready to negotiate. Both are preparing to launch major offensives shortly. Neither side has achieved a breakthrough in recent months that would change the war’s course. Russia’s failure to win in a blitzkrieg prompted many predictions of Ukraine’s imminent victory. Lately, the commentary has been about a stalemate.
